Welcome to the thirteenth edition of the EUCERS newsletter – please find in this month’s edition:

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The Deepening Crisis of Europe’s Climate Policy

Climate policy is no longer a big item on the EU’s agenda and the climate mania is gradually coming to an end after almost 20 years. Poland is vigorously blocking any new CO2 emission targets at EU level. There is growing support among Eastern European governments to block any new unilateral climate targets permanently. Benny Peiser, Director of the Global Warming Policy Foundation, argues that as a result of the deadlock in Brussels, climate and green energy policies are facing a severe and deepening crisis and that there is a growing risk that the EU’s unilateral strategy is hampering the economic recovery and, consequently, the future of European competitiveness.

The Beginning and the End of the Oil Curse?

Why does oil wealth so often become a curse for developing states?  In the developing world, oil-producing states are fifty percent more likely to be ruled by autocrats, and more than twice as likely to have civil wars, as non-oil states.  They are also more secretive, more financially volatile, and provide women with fewer economic and political opportunities.  For the last 30 years, good geology has led to bad politics. In this article, Dr Michael Ross, Professor of Political Science at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), summarizes the talk he gave at King’s College London on his recently published book, The Oil Curse, which describes an array of strategies to alter the size, source, stability, and secrecy of oil revenues.

EUCERS ACTIVITIES

EUCERS Energy Talks: Green Energy – Green Business

EUCERS invites you to the fourth roundtable discussion of our EUCERS Energy Talks: Green Energy – Green Business in Europe. 23 May, 2012, 13.00 – 15.00 at King’s College London. Keynotes by Christian Kremer, Deputy Secretary General of the European People’s Party (EPP) and author of the EPP’s position on combating climate change and Humphrey Douglas, Partner, SNR Denton.

EUCERS ON THE ROAD

EUCERS ANNOUNCEMENTS

EUCERS partners with European Energy Review (EER)

The Konrad-Adenauer-Foundation Energy Security Fellowship Programme

Reminder: King’s College Summer School – Global Energy Politics – REGISTRATION UNTIL END OF MAY

New Research Associate at EUCERS

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Welcome to the twelth edition of the EUCERS newsletter – please find in this month’s edition:

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Looking beyond the Gulf and Russia: Kurdish Energy on Europe’s doorsteps by Shwan Zulal
While crude is hovering above $100 per barrel, the rhetoric against Iran is ratcheting up, followed by the US and EU sanctions against the regime. With Iranian exports are being halted, global oil spare capacity is being squeezed.The Kurdistan Region of Iraq has been described as the last onshore oil and gas frontier in the world; and it is on Europe’s doorsteps. In this article, Shwan Zulal, a consultant and expert in the oil and gas market in Kurdistan, explains why the EU should look at this region as a reliable energy partner in order to achieve the European energy strategy’s goals and why an active engagement with Kurdistan at the early stages of its development would insure a greater European influence and participation in the making of a potentially new major energy producer.

Is the Arctic ‘Hot’ Enough? by Marina Chunareva
Increasing global temperatures imply thatthe Arctic Ocean will soon be free of the ice cap. That entails two crucial consequences: first, it opens the opportunity to extract energy resources hidden at the bottom of the Arctic Ocean and second, it leads to increasedship traffic along the Northeast Passage. These two factors combined could possibly change the alignment of forces on the world chessboard and lead to a new ‘great game’. Marina Chunareva argues that these predictions are somewhat overestimated: neither the overall global economic situation nor the individual intentions and capabilities of the Arctic coastal states are likely to ruin the balance of power in the High North in the medium-to-long term.

EUCERS ACTIVITIES
EUCERS, together with the War Studies Russian & Eurasian Security Research Group and The European Azerbaijan Society, organised a half-day seminar discussing topical issues related to Central Asia. Find our report on the interesting discussions that took place during this event.

EUCERS Announcement
3rd EUcers Energy Talk on 17 April 2012, 13-15.00 “EU Climate Change Policy: Priority or Backseat” with statements by Paolo Caridi, DG Climate, International and Inter-institutional Relations, European Commission and Dr Benny Peiser, Director Global Warming Policy Foundation

and…
EUCERS on the Road
EUCERS Publications
EUCERS Announcements
EUCERS Advisory Board
Acknowledgements

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Welcome to the eleventh edition of the EUCERS newsletter – please find in this month’s edition:

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EU Energy policy: Engaging with Partners beyond Our Borders
Our energy landscape is changing. Developments we have seen over the last several years both in the EU and elsewhere make it necessary and urgent for the EU to act in a coherent way in securing our energy interests abroad. The Commission adopted in September 2011 a Communication on security of energy supply and international cooperation, outlining the main contours of the EU external energy strategy. This Communication proposed specific initiatives for the near future, marking an important step in our efforts to develop a common voice in external energy relations. Dr Michael Köhler, the Head of Cabinet of Commissioner Guenther H. Oettinger makes an argument on the case for EU coordination external energy policies.

The High North Energy Security Strategy: Back to Security Roots
The EU’s external energy policy with respect to natural gas supplies has three dimensions: supplies from Russia, supplies from North Africa and the future of supplies from the Middle East and Central Asia by the planned Nabucco pipeline. However, the reliance on risky partners and projects that will probably never be completed does not provide a sense of security. Greg Pytel, risk professional and international business development consultant, argues that the development of the High North resources, in partnership with Norway and Canada, looks clearly to be the best way that the EU can guarantee its long-term needs.

EUCERS ACTIVITIES
We cordially invite you to upcoming events
BRIDGE OR BARRIER? The Role of Central Asia in 21^st Century International Politics – 15^th March 2012
THE OIL CURSE: How Petroleum Wealth Shapes the Development of Nations – 19^th March 2012

and…
EUCERS on the Road
EUCERS Publications
EUCERS Announcements
EUCERS Advisory Board
Acknowledgements

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Welcome to the tenth edition of the EUCERS newsletter – please find in this month’s edition:
Russian Energy Politics: From Europe to Asia
The financial and economic crisis of 2008 and 2009 emphasised the extent to which the Russian economy is dependent on oil and gas export revenues. This has significant consequences as the global economic downturn limits Russia’s room for manoeuvre both internally and externally. Indeed, the uncertainty on the European gas market, along with the growth of a global LNG market and the production of unconventional gas reserves in North America, is forcing Russia to rethink its energy strategy. In his speech presented at the last EUCERS event, Dr Louis Skyner, Commercial Manager at Statoil ASA in Russia, discusses the implications for Russia’s Gazprom energy strategy, as well as the potential for a reform in the Russian gas industry and market.

The Pros and Cons of Shale Gas in Europe: A Review of Energy Security in 2011
In the past five years, the EU gas market has been transformed beyond belief. An important reason for these changes is the discovery of shale gas. It has been known for decades that gas exists in shale rocks, but it was only until recently that advances in the technology of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling allowed its extraction. With an increase in energy prices, shale gas has become viable to obtain. Significant shale reserves have been discovered in Australia and China; in Europe, the biggest reserves are believed to be in Poland, Ukraine and France, and a significant source has also been discovered in the UK. Moses Ekpolomo, a EUCERS research associate and PhD student at KCL, analyses the benefits and obstacles for shale gas to become a major energy source in Europe.

EUCERS ACTIVITIES
On 18 January 2012 the European Centre for Energy and Resource Security (EUCERS) together with the EU Commission Representation in the UK and the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in London welcomed tot he 2nd EUcers Energy Roundtable on „EU Energy Policy: Engaging with Partners beyond our Borders“. Dr Michael Köhler, Head of Cabinet Head of Cabinet of Commissioner Günther H. Oettinger at the European Commission and Dr Louis Skyner, Commercial Manager at Statoil ASA in Russia held the introductory statements before we embarked on adiscussion, introduced by Iulian Chifu, Associate Professor at the Bucharest National School of Political and Administrative Studies and Advisor to the Romanian President on Strategic Affairs, Security and Foreign Policy. After the discussion Louis Skyner and Iulian Chifu also participated in a recording for the departmental podcast, which can be found here: (http://warstudies.podomatic.com/).

EUCERS ON THE ROAD

EUCERS ANNOUNCEMENTS
King’s College London Summer School on Global Energy Politics – Applications now open!

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Welcome to the ninth EUCERS newsletter – please find in this month’s edition

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NORD STREAM: WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR EUROPE?
The official inauguration of the Nord Stream pipeline on 8 November heralded the opening of the first direct natural gas supply link between Russia and Europe. Given Europe already receives a quarter of its gas supply from Russia what are the implications for European gas buyers of an additional 55 billion cubic metre (bcm) Russian export corridor? JAMES ALLPRESS, managing editor of European Gas Markets, the leading publication for professionals in the European natural gas sector, looks at the consequences.

ASKING THE WRONG QUESTION: WILL CHINA LEAVE TURKMEN GAS FOR EUROPE?

Global consultants Gaffney, Cline & Associatesconfirmed in October 2011 that Turkmenistan’s South Yolotan fieldcontains 13-21trillion cubic metres (tcm) of gas, significantly more than the 2008 estimate of 4-14 tcm.  Ashgabat’s recent decision to triple its gas sales to 65 billion cubic metres (bcm) to China from 2014-2015 has raised question marks whether the Central Asia country will be able to honour previous promises to supply the European market. In this article, GUY LEUNG, an energy analyst and doctoral researcher, argues that although Turkmenistan’s gas strategy has prioritised China, it is evidently willing and able to supply gas to Europe. But the mammoth standing in its way is the Bear, not the Panda.

EUCERS ACTIVITIES
On 12 December 2011 the European Centre for Energy and Resource Security (EUCERS) together with the Central Europe Energy Partners (CEEP) and in cooperation with the Atlantic Council of the US held an event in Berlin. It introduced two new studies on the Future of Clean Coal Technologies and CCS. The presentation in Berlin followed an event in September, where Frank Umbach of EUCERS and Pamela Tomski of the Atlantic Council presented their draft studies for the first time.

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Welcome to the eighth EUCERS newsletter – please find in this month’s edition

RARE EARTHS AND THE EU: A CASE OF MISTAKEN OPTIMISM
Earlier this year, EUCERS highlighted the crucial role played by rare earths 17 elements used in producing anything from mobile phones to cruise missiles. While their role is of utmost importance to a technology-driven 21^st century economy, the West’s failure to address a global shortage could expose it to the whims of the international markets where the biggest winner is currently China. In this second article written by RODERICK KEFFERPÜTZ, a policy advisor in the European Parliament, EUCERS aims to bring back to the table a subject that should sound a wake-up call to policy-makers in the European Union before it is too late.

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THE GULF INTERCONNECTION PROJECT: AN INVITATION TO CREATIVE THINKING
The nuclear disaster at Japan’s Fukushima power plant in March 2011 led a number of European countries to reject the technology, leaving Europe scrambling for viable solutions to its energy security conundrum. Contrary to expectations, energy efficiency, renewable sources of energy and a greater emphasis on natural gas do not seem to be an easy option. Describing the case of the Gulf Interconnection – a project that could link the electricity grids of several countries from the tip of Oman to Gibraltar and save billions of euros – AURA SABADUS argues that Brussels should muster the courage to think beyond the obvious.

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EUCERS ACTIVITIES
EUCERS together with the Centre for European Reform organised a panel discussion on the Future of EU Energy Policy on Thursday, 27 October. The workshop celebrated the launch of a report – “Green, Safe, Cheap: Where next for EU energy policy?” written by EU commissioners Günther Oettinger and Connie Hedegaard together with ten European experts. The keynote speech delivered by Charles Hendry MP, Minister of State at the UK Department of Energy and Climate Change was preceded by a welcome address by Professor Friedbert Pflüger, director of EUCERS.
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EUCERS ON THE ROAD

EUCERS ANNOUNCEMENTS
EUCERS has won an EU grant to organise six talks on energy security together with the EU Commission Representation in the UK. The talks will be held over the next 12 months.
Our next workshop will be held on 17 November when the EUCERS together with the European Commission Representation in the UK and the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in London will host a talk on the “Future of Renewables in Britain and Europe.”
Dr Stefan Tostmann, Head Financial Resources DG Energy, European Commission and Professor Paul Ekins, Professor of Energy and Environmental Policy at UCL will give the
introductory talks, followed by an intervention by Stephen Tindale, Associate Fellow CER, before we embark on a roundtable discussion.
The workshop will start at 13.00 and will be followed by a light lunch from 15.00 onwards. Anyone interested to attend should contact Carola Gegenbauer at carola.gegenbauer@kcl.ac.uk or call 0207 848 1912.
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Welcome to the seventh EUCERS newsletter – please find in this month’s edition (click the stars to access the full-text version…)

COAL: A PILLAR OF EUROPE’S FUTURE

Coal is the backbone of electricity generation. Last year coal’s share in global energy consumption was at its highest since 1970 and for the past ten years coal has been the fastest growing energy fuel each year. And yet, public awareness about the role of coal in modern economies is virtually non-existent while policy-makers fail to strike a balance between promoting the fuel and mitigating its polluting effects. Here, MILTON CATELIN, chief executive of the World Coal Association argues that Europe should make its environmental policy more sustainable while GREG PYTEL, an analyst with extensive experience in the oil sector calls for the coal industry to switch from a “self-pitying mentality” stuck in the past to a “can do” attitude facing the future.

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SOUTH CHINA SEA: A gathering storm?

The prospect of abundant untapped hydrocarbon riches in the South China Sea has raised tensions among energy-hungry littoral states. China has stepped up its opposition to any exploratory activities by neighbouring countries, protesting its jurisdictional claims in the area. On the other hand, Brunei, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam continue to insist on their rights to drill in the oil and gas-rich waters, sparking a regional standoff and even fears of a military conflict between interested parties. MOSES EKPOLOMO, a EUCERS research associate and PhD student at KCL, describes the complexity of this territorial dispute.

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EUCERS ACTIVITIES

EUCERS together with the Centre for European Reform (CER) is to hold a panel discussion on a report entitled “The Future of EU Energy Policy”. Contributors to the report included, among others, EU Commissioners Günther Oettinger and Connie Hedegaard. Charles Hendry MP, Minister of State at the Department of Energy and Climate will give the keynote address. This will be followed by a panel discussion that also includes Dr Frank Umbach (Associate Director, EUCERS), Stephen Tindale (Associate Fellow, CER) and Nick Mabey (CEO of E3G) who have contributed to the report.

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Welcome to the sixth EUCERS newsletter – please find in this month’s edition (click the stars to access the full-text version…)

RARE EARTHS: Make Beijing an offer it can’t refuse

For more than a year industrialised nations and China have been at loggerheads over the supply of rare earths, 17 elements which are used to produce anything from hybrid cars and wind turbines to cruise missiles and smart bombs. Although these materials are now considered the indispensable building blocks of a high-tech, 21^st century economy Western countries have “sleepwalked” into an awkward situation by making themselves heavily dependent on China for their supply. Previous attempts to correct the current circumstances are unlikely to work and only effective diplomatic talks could help prevent a looming crisis, as RODERICK KEFFERPÜTZ, a natural resource specialist, maintains.

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KURDISH ENERGY AND THE EU: Time for a (different) bear hug?

A decision by several European countries to phase out nuclear production will leave the continent even more exposed to Russia as their main supplier. Alternative solutions mooted so far range from renewable types of generation to natural gas piped from the Caspian region. Increasingly, the resource-rich Kurdistan region in northern Iraq appears as a viable source of supply. However, political infighting inside Iraq, as well as emerging rivalries between neighbouring Turkey and Iran are curbing the region’s prospects for progress. Furthermore, Brussels’ recent actions may be sending confusing signals to the Kurdistan region at a time when the two need each other most, as SHWAN ZULAL, a political risk analyst specialising in the area, argues.

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EUCERS ACTIVITIES

EUCERS returned in full force at the beginning of September with a specialist workshop on the future of coal and the prospect for Carbon Capture Storage (CCS) and clean coal technologies. The meeting organised in conjunction with the Atlantic Council, an independent body committed to promoting transatlantic cooperation, included high-profile speakers such as Gery Juleff, Head, Wider Energy Security Team at the UK’s Foreign and Commonwealth Office and James F. Wood, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Coal, at the US Department of Energy.

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EUCERS ON THE ROAD

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EUCERS ANNOUNCEMENTS

EUCERS has won an EU grant to organise six talks on energy security together with the EU Commission Representation in the UK. The talks will be held over the next 12 months.

Professor Pflüger has been invited to moderate a panel at the 21^st Economic Forum in Krynica, Poland, on 7 September.

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Welcome to the fourth EUCERS newsletter – please find in this month’s edition (click the stars to access the full-text version…)

AN ARCTIC (COLD) WAR: Alarming developments or empty rhetoric?

The Arctic has yet again made the headlines as BP sought to seal a deal with Russia’s Rosneft over the exploration of the region’s resources. The recent Arctic Council summit held in Greenland in May and an injunction by a Dutch court against Greenpeace’s disruptions to Cairn Energy drilling in the area have brought to the fore the importance of this final energy frontier.  It has been argued that the intensifying race for oil and natural gas could trigger a war among Arctic nations over the ownership of the region’s mineral resources. Analysing the geological data, the economics behind the potential exploration and the background debates, EUCERS director of research and Arctic specialist Dr PETRA DOLATA-KREUTZKAMP assesses the odds of such an outcome.

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Historical energy shifts and the retreat of globalisation

Structural shifts currently happening behind the headlines threaten to deprive us of the benefits of our globalised world. The availability of cheap fossil fuels over the larger part of the last 100 years accelerated the process of globalisation, a phenomenon responsible for the world’s economic development, the spread of civilian as well as military technologies and the dissemination of socio-cultural and political ideas, primarily emanating from the West. But, EUCERS editor, AURA SABADUS argues that a number of factors related to the dynamics of crude oil resources coupled with the exploration and use of shale gas at domestic level could now reverse that trend and herald a rise in national protectionism.

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EUCERS ACTIVITIES

EUCERS and the Helmut Schmidt University in Hamburg have agreed to cooperate in a number of research projects focusing on energy security. Much like the KCL’s War Studies Department, the Helmut Schmidt University serves the academic education of armed forces officers. It focuses on multidisciplinary research which includes social, natural, economic and engineering sciences.

EUCERS Associate Director Dr Frank Umbach and Maximilian Kuhn, chief editor for EUCERS strategy papers have been interviewed on a number of energy-related topics by the BBC World Service, European Energy Review and ICIS Heren.

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EUCERS EVENTS

EUCERS in conjunction with the Conflict Prevent and Early Warning Center (CPEWC), Bucharest will host a workshop on Energy Security in the Black Sea region at King’s College London on Thursday 16 June. The event will include the launch of the CPEWC publication “Energy Security Strategies in the Wider Black Sea Region”, by Professor Iulian Chifu, director of the Bucharest-based centre. The second part of the roundtable will focus on Iraq, EU and the Nabucco gas pipeline project.

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EUCERS ANNOUNCEMENTS

EUCERS in conjunction with the King’s College London Summer School are proud to announce the launch of a three-week course later this summer which aims to introduce students and professionals with an interest in energy-related issues to the realities of the subject.

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